Laptops Get Crazy Cheap

Want a 15" laptop with a 2gh dual core CPU with 4GB of ram, a 500GB hard drive, a DVD burner and WiFi?  That'll be $499.  And it will weigh no more than about 4.5 pounds - typical for a mid-size business notebook.

Now, it's a Dell notebook here.  It doesn't include some useful options like Bluetooth (I use Blueetooth a lot on my laptop, but I don't know a single other person who does) and because it's a Dell it's going to be among the ugliest little machines that money can buy.  Also missing: lots of higher quality, performance optimized components that contribute a lot to speed and performance.

But let's be honest: WHO CARES?  For $499, this is a laptop any small business can afford and most parents would feel comfortable giving to their kids.  And, unless you're using Photoshop or are an extreme gamer, it's going to be more than adequate for just about everything you can think of.  Very impressive.

Even at the higher end of the market, prices seem to be plunging to new lows.  The lack of a compelling reason to buy a high performance PC has made it hard to keep average selling prices up.  What's interesting here is that at the top end of the market, PC prices are getting pretty low too.  A top-of-the-line Lenovo X201 with an SSD is just $1700.  It was only a couple of years ago that SSD-based laptop was over $3,000.

And here's something else interesting: Apple is smoking the competition at the high end.  Apple's SSD-based MacBook Air laptops are hundreds of dollars cheaper than their competition.  The same spec on an SSD from Apple is $300-500 less than Lenovo PCs.  The price differential is not so evident on the MacBook Pro, which is still priced comparably to other high end PCs from Lenovo.

Apple's share of the PC market is inching up - now 20% of the US retail - and as companies buy fewer and fewer laptops and expecting employees to bring their own, that aggressive pricing could help bring their share up further.  Also to look out for: Samsung, which as the leading maker of SSD chips, could leverage that to be aggressive themselves.

Not beautiful, but amazing value.  Flickr CC

Hey Amazon, I want to SCHEDULE my deliveries

Ah Black Friday.  My Japanese AuPair hit the stores starting at about 7am.  She was out all day.  She was out, in fact, from 7am to 7pm.  And she didn't buy anything.  She just wanted to see the consumption frenzy on the biggest shopping day of the year anywhere.  She came home amused but empty handed.  I guess she wasn't willing to put an elbow into that Wal-Mart opening crowd for the really great deals.

I myself bought nothing.  Nothing at all on Black Friday.  I buy about 99% of all Christmas Gifts on Amazon.  The prices are excellent (not always the absolute lowest) and they're free of sales tax and come with free fast shipping.

There's one catch: I don't want my gifts sitting around from December 1 to 25.  I wouldn't have the self-control not to open them and neither do most of my friends & family.  I want them to arrive on/around December 21-23.  The problem is, you can't "schedule" the deliveries on Amazon.com.

So Amazon: here's my request: let people schedule gift deliveries with a 3-4 day window before the selected event.  Then I would do more shopping on Black Friday or Cyber Monday or whatever.  More money from me.  I know you want it.

Just enough room for my holiday shopping.  Flickr (cc)

Amazing article about the stupidity of managed investment funds.

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Why being polite is actually really important in the workplace.

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California May Be Ungovernable, But At Least We're Not PIGS

According to the Economist, while California may be ungovernable, we're still considered less likely to default than Europe's PIGS.  There are so many ways we've become like Italy, why not make government solvency one more?

Really the markets are being too hard on the PIGS, I think, and perhaps they assume a certain implicit guarantee on California from the US federal government?

From The Economist (Link)

More Evidence of Convergence In The Living Room

I think Google TV will ultimately be successful, despite all the content blocking that is going on right now - but the more tactical evidence of convergence happening is showing up in the video game business where the XBOX seems to be opening up a fairly large lead on the competition.

There are three consoles out there that matter: XBOX, PlayStation, and Wii.  The Wii has the least CPU power of all of them, but it has been successful because of Nintendo's quirky and innovative approach to gaming.  With the rise of Kinect and Sony's Wii-alike wireless paddles, the bigger console makers have taken some of the differentiation that existed away from Nintendo.

What's left?  Differentiation in media content.  The XBOX stands far and away ahead of any other console in terms of connectivity and media content.  This year, Wii sales have been in decline (link) and the XBOX has been ascendent even before the launch of Kinect.  Given the differences between the consoles, that seems to point to a take-off in media convergence more than a change in the gaming market.

Wii Sales History - From Gamasutra

What I'd Put In The Galaxy Tab 2.0

Samsung is off to a great start with the Galaxy tab.  They matched Apple's initial sales figures for the iPad, 600,000 units in the first month.  Since Samsung didn’t' have a "launch day" like Apple did, it's perhaps a reasonable comparison.  Obviously, there's a long way to go, but it will be good for Samsung to get out in front on the Android side of the equation.

There's no reason to believe that Android tablets can't take the same role as Android phones have in assuming a quick march to market leadership.  As Google continues to tighten up standards for the devices, it could reduce worries of fragmentation while increasing the addressable market size for developers.

The first edition of the Galaxy tab is very good. I've handled it and it's polished even if Android itself isn't fully ready for primetime on the tablet.  That will improve in 2011 and at that time it will good for Samsung to release a new edition.  In that spirit, here was my thinking about what would make me switch from my iPad to an Android tablet:

• Embrace Handwriting.  I use my iPad to take notes and there are some remarkably good solutions for the iPad that use software to detect palms.  The gold standard would be a digitizer tablet, something that I think is essential for mark-up in an education environment.
• Enable Mice.  Some people are going to want to turn their tablets into very very mini PCs - complete with wireless keyboards and touchpads or mice.  Let them.  
• Go Unlocked.  Enable people to be a fully capable unlocked version of the device that they can use on any network.

Beyond my own needs, I think there are two additional models/form-factors that Samsung must consider:

• Large screen.  For text-book users, that is going to be a must.  I'm not sure that dual-screen readers will take off, but I am sure that education users need a larger format.
• Ruggedized version.  From age 2 when they drool on things to age 17 when they sit on them and shove them in their backpacks without protection, kids are hard on their technology.  I would love to give my kids an iPad or an iPod touch someday, but I fear the consequences of giving a child such a delicate and expensive item.

Tablets are only going to get better.   Competition is good for the industry and Samsung knows how to make a market very very competitive.

Samsung off to a great start.   Link

How could I not have seen this before now? Marmalade is perfect on plain yogurt. And even better on thick, greek yogurt!

Windows Phone 7 Rockets Out Of The Gate With 2000 Apps

Windows Phone 7 is the slickest new mobile phone operating system to come to market since the iPhone.  And as I wrote last month, it's got quite a few legs up on the iPhone.  But what matters to buyers today are apps.  And to my surprise, Windows Phone 7 has them in spades.

Data from retailers shows the phones are not flying off the shelves, but the seem to be doing ok. (Anecdotal sales reports here and conflicting data on shortages here)  And with 2,000 apps to get the user started, it's a pretty good selection.  Developers need another mobile platform like they need a hole in the head, but there's no arguing with the huge investment Microsoft has made and the impressive start.

Who might lose on this?  I'm thinking HP (Palm) developers could feel squeezed out as could Symbian developers, who are probably giving up anyway.  In the future, Android and iPhone are platforms that will definitely survive.  12 months ago you could have been certain that RIM would survive too, but that looks less like a certainty today (though still likely).

For developers, that leaves Palm, Windows, and Symbian as the "runners up".  Unlike HP or Nokia, Microsoft, at least, has shown they are prepared to bribe developers to make apps if necessary.  And with 50 million+ XBOX users, games, which are the top apps for most platforms, could keep developers and users engaged.

All so much speculation.  If I had an unlimited personal budget, I'd buy an Android Tablet and a Windows Phone 7 as well.  But I don't.  So I'm sticking with the iPhone for the moment.  But just for the moment.

Windows Phone 7 Screen Shot - From Microsoft

Mozy's mac update is out, but too late to save my business. The old version just sucked.

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Will All Those Different Data Plans Hurt Samsung's Galaxy Tab?

The Samsung Galaxy tablet is starting to be sold widely - every major US wireless carrier is going to be selling the device.  And every one is selling it at a different price and with a different priced data plan.  For example, on T-Mobile, it's $399 on contract and $599 without.

That means the T-Mobile contract subsidy is $200 over 24 months, about $9/month.  T-Mobile's data plans are exactly the same - the same price whether your are on contract or not (so not much of an incentive to be contract-free) and the same price regardless of the device you use.  Of all the major carriers this is probably the fairest deal.

ATT is offering 2GB for $25 on the data plan.  Sprint will be offering the same amount of data for $29 or 5GB for $60.  Verizon has the worst plan: $20 for just 1 GB.  Even worse: It's not clear, from the data I've been reading, that when you pay full price at these networks that the tablet will be unlocked for your use on any network.

All those different plans and prices and structures?  Could be quite confusing to consumers.  The total subsidy is relatively smaller than most phones (the iPhone, which is close to $700 at retail goes for $199) and the data plans are far most costly, it seems, on average than phone plans for the same amount of data, or less.  The iPad's unsubsidized approach keeps pricing simple, but at the cost of a higher price.

What should the wireless carriers be doing?  Upping the subsidy I think.  The $399 subsidized price might not be low enough to make buying the Galaxy tab over the iPad a no-brainer.  While the carriers are pushing the Table and the iPad, the better value is a WiFi device with MiFi device (preferably from Virgin).

Hulu Keeps Adding Commercials - Where Is The End Point?

A 22 minute television show on broadcast has about 8 minutes of commercials.  An hour-long TV program will have 16 minutes of commercials.  And very very few people want to watch all those ads.  Right now, Hulu is running between 4 to 6 commercials for an full length program.

In the past, they used to be reliably 30 seconds or less - and just one of them.  Now, we're seeing more and more commercials, up to two back-to-back 30 second commercials or one full minute ad.  The total is about 1/3 of the comparable advertising to on-air, but the trend is not encouraging.

There is one possibility of a silver lining: perhaps there will be fewer commercials on cable in the future.  Today, cable subscribers pay (heftily) for TV that is loaded with ads.  They may lose their tolerance for all those commercials.   And the result could a better cable TV experience.  But let's not get our hopes up.

But How Do You Fix Cognitive Errors?

NPR has a great article on cognitive bias (actual, a segment from Talk Of The Nation).  People, when confronted with facts that don't fit their worldview, tend to find ways to discount them and not change their mind.

That much is easy to understand, but from there - what do you do?

• How do you know if a piece of evidence is big enough to change your views or just a small data point?
• How do you know if you are rationalizing away evidence or performing a reasoned assessment of new information?

Sometimes the facts are well know and well argued (yes, global warming is real) but sometimes it's not so clear cut.  It still matters to get the answer right - for example when investing - but in those cases there may be far less evidence to sift through.

I don't have any answers, but here's a link to the NPR podcast:

Flash

Flash

Great article on the brain - how amazing and broken it is. http://ping.fm/rjmzo

My prediction: 2011's Hottest New Over Top TV Company: The BBC

I wish I had gotten to go to NewTeeVee, the GigaOM conference taking place this week.  Sadly, I was in New York for another meeting.  A couple of days of total immersion in the land of the cord-cutters would have been a lot of fun.

Right now, the big fighting is about how to get content that was created for movie theaters and televisions on the interwebs.  There are no real technical obstacles to doing this.  It's all about the law, specifically copyright.  Content development is financed by selling the rights to that content.  Right now, the vast majority of that content is bought companies that make their core profits outside the Internet.  That won't always be true.

At the start of the cable era, cable television was just an antenna for broadcast stations to improve signal quality.  Then people starting make dedicated cable stations.  They spent their first 20 years buying reruns of network shows and foreign documentaries (thank you, BBC).  Eventually, they started financing their own TV shows.  And when that happened, they started to see their ratings take off.  Now the top rated cable shows routinely unseat broadcast television.

The same is going to happen on the web.  Custom web shows are in their infancy. They are still sporadic and of hugely varying quality.  There is no standard distribution mechanism.  All those things are slowly changing.  Big name stars are starting to appear in these shows and distribution services are growing stronger.  Creating a channel on Hulu, the XBOX, or Roku gives companies instant access to millions of viewers.  Some platforms like XBOX are true global platforms.

And that global nature could make this loop of the history reel very different.  Cable television companies, like their broadcast antecedents, were geographically limited.  They fit nicely into the TV licensing model on national and regional terms.  The web doesn't have to do that.  On the Internet, you can build a brand new TV channel and aggregate viewers from across the planet - creating a new generation of global media giants.

Content that is created for the Internet doesn't have to come with the huge web of licensing restrictions.  It can be created on day one for a truly global audience.  And as a result, new Internet giants could quickly eclipse traditional TV networks that are busy trying to optimize a national or regional model.  As was recently pointed out, the XBOX live network has more users than Comcast.

And the first of these new global mega media giants?  I think it might be the BBC.  Long an exporter of quality programming and the operator of a global satellite and radio network, the BBC's iPlayer is the UK's Hulu before Hulu.  Pushing the iPlayer out globally could allow that organization to aggregate the largest global audience of any broadcaster.

Stodgy New Media Revolutionary?  Photo from Redvers

Ouch! Giz slams the new Galaxy Tab. I liked it when I had a few mins to play, but they sure did not.

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Comparing Actual Time to Perceived Time - Your Last Cold

Actual Time:

Day 1:  Feeling bad
Day 2:  Feeling awful, wishing you could skip work but don't
Day 3:  Feeling a bit better
Days 4-12: Lingering cough, post-nasal drip (technical name for lots of snot)
Days 13-14: Back to normal


Perception of  Time When You Have A Cold:

Week 1: Feeling awful, crushed by devastating ilness
Week 2: Slow painful recovery
Week 3: Coughing continuously, hacking up at least one lung
Week 4: Still coughing
Month 2: Coughing at night only, getting no sleep
Month 3: Starting to wonder: do I have a cold, or is this lung cancer?
Month 4: Seriously thinking about making a doctor appointment
Month 5: Obtained cough medicine from pharmacy, actually starting to sleep
Month 6: All better
Month 7: Doctor appointment cancelled.

Tissues - (Fancy Japanese ones that teach manners on the label) - photo by Matsuyuki

Two New Web Sites / Services I Like

Two useful new items on my MacBook:

1. Click To Flash

Click To Flash keeps all Adobe Flash elements from activating until you click them.  Brilliant saver of CPU and battery, not to mention reducing the visual clutter on a lot of screens.

Click To Flash removes Flash from web sites.

2.  uQuery: The App Store Search Engine

Searching the Apple App store on iTunes is an abomination.   A nightmare of cluttered UI, horrendous performance.  It's impossible to search quickly and separate the garbage (of which there is a lot) from the good stuff.  uQuery does that.  It's not perfect, but it's the best way I've seen so far to search the app store.

Couldn't Be Simpler

Going On A Flash Diet

Apple's war on Adobe Flash is partly a clash of business empires and also a clash of philosophy and style.  Flash is clunky but flexible, and widely adopted.  However, it lacks the elegance and efficiency that characterize Apple's products.  HTML5 offers many benefits, but it still cannot quite match Adobe Flash.  Still, it was a revelation to me that you can add 2 hours to your MacBook air battery life by ditching flash - at least according to some.

As an executive in an online video start-up, I'm intimately familiar with the benefits and drawbacks of Flash.  Right now, we cannot dump Flash because HTML5 does not adequately support encrypted video - something that is needed to thwart potential pirates.  Apple has implemented encryption on the Mac platform, but not universally.  That major studios and content providers still consider HTML5 insufficiently secure can be seen in YouTube. While many videos are now available in H.264, not all of them are.  Many still show up as blanks when you try to watch them.

Given the news of the added battery life, I decided to give it a shot.  I downloaded ClickToFlash, a safari extension that blocks Flash from loading until you click on the box where it sits.  The results: amazing.  I can't attest to the full battery life impact because I didn't do a scientific test, but it certainly seems to work.

More than just battery life, however, going on a Flash-diet improved my MacBook performance all around.  Web pages showed up with a fraction of the ads filled in, reducing visual clutter.  And they loaded much faster as well.  My CPU load was also visibly lower as well.  I tend to leave my browser open all the time these days, and with Flash ads everywhere, that drains battery and performance continuously.

So, ClickToFlash is my new favorite extension.  I highly recommend it.

Gizmodo without Flash - Cleaner, Simpler

What if your browser was an airline?

I've been combing through my system logs.  MBA crashes are all preceded by a string of Google Chrome error messages.  Whether they really cause the crash or not is hard to tell.  I know that I haven't had a single crash since I stopped using Chrome.  Maximum uptime now is up from 30 minutes to 14 hours.  Let's hope this trend continues.

Very cool insight and analysis on Climate Change - refutes so many brain-dead skeptics.

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If Your New MacBook Air Was An Airline

There's an old joke about what if your operating system was an airline.  The windows version is usually told like this:

The terminal is pretty and colorful, with friendly stewards, easy baggage check and boarding, and a smooth takeoff. After about 10 minutes in the air, the plane explodes with no warning whatsoever.

Unfortunately, that is an accurate description of my new MacBook Air.  Sleek, powerful, and prone to random crashes.  About 12 so far, pretty consistent with the performance problems that other people are reporting to Apple.  (Link).

Hopefully, this will be resolved soon.  In the meantime, I'm saving frequently.

Well, Not Really Your PC

Whitman, Fiorina Fail, Does That Mean Voters Don't Like Silicon Valley

I was relieved to see that both of them failed in their bids for power, but I don't think it means that voters don't like CEOs or that they don't like Silicon Valley technologists.  To start with, both ran as Republicans.  In fact, Silicon Valley trends towards the socially-liberally, economically-conservative democratic type.  Republican hostility to immigrants, gays, and science doesn't play well in a region where all three are fairy important parts fo the economy.

The second issue for both candidates is that while they were CEOs, they were not considered universally successful.  Fiorina had vision, but was ultimately fired by the HP board (who on their own might be considered a pretty bad board) and Whitman presided over eBay's decline from visionary marketplace into nickel-and-dime profit-machine (at the expense of millions of small business owners).

Certainly, in my neighborhood in Woodside, you couldn't see a single lawn sign for either candidate, and I consider Woodside a pretty good barometer of how the valley feels about politics.  Other initiatives that were strongly backed by Silicon Valley did get through - including elimination of the super-majority for budgets and the failure of the Texas-oil-backed initiative to suspend California's clean air rules.

Photo from Flickr cc.  Author

Amazing graphic shows how 3 companies dominate beverage industry - but is that a sign of low competition or high?

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Over the top networks are now bigger than some cable companies.

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